December 9, 2002

Poker Hand Comparisons - For

Poker Hand Comparisons - For an avid poker player, this is a cool thing. It's a web-based poker hand comparison calculator (to tell you who is the "favorite" when two hands go up against each other). By favorite, I mean which hand wil statistically take the pot the most times. If you are holding a "favorite" you are not guaranteed to win, sinc ethe other person could draw out on you (catch a card that gives him a better hand) but in the long run that hand will win vs. the other hand.

Check it out: Poker Hand Analyzer

They also allow you to look at the logs - what hands visitors are comparing.

Here is a sample hand:

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 9d 8d 4d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ah Kh 249 25.15 696 70.30 45 4.55 0.274
2s 2c 696 70.30 249 25.15 45 4.55 0.726

We see a pair of deuces going up against AK suited when the flop is 3 garbage cards of a suit not held by either opponent. The game, of course, is Texas Hold'em. The pair, even though it is deuces, is the favorite by far because the AK needs to pair his ace or king to win. They tie if the next two cards are diamonds (if you eliminate this chance of a board flush, the 22 looks even better).

Compare that to this flop:

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 8d 9h 4h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ah Kh 557 56.26 433 43.74 0 0.00 0.563
2s 2c 433 43.74 557 56.26 0 0.00 0.437

Now two of the board cards are suited with the AK, so he is on a flush draw. However, he has so many outs now that he's the slight favorite. If he gets raised by the pair (unlikely) it would be correct to reraise. The reraise could also work as a semibluff, since any pair would have the deuces beat at this point, he might be smart to fold.

Finally, compare that to:

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 8d 9h 4h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ah Kh 536 54.14 454 45.86 0 0.00 0.541
Ts Tc 454 45.86 536 54.14 0 0.00 0.459

..instead of deuces, we've given one player tens. It hasn't changed the odds much, but now he would be a lot less likely to raise, and less likely to fold a reraise semi-bluff. Cool!

Posted by James at December 9, 2002 4:03 PM
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