September 12, 2004
…if you think you know how this election is going to fall.
Electoral Vote Predictor
It’s based on state polls. Today it has Kerry with a significant lead. Last week it had Bush with a significant lead. Who knows what it will say when you get around to clicking that link? I certainly don’t.
Posted by James at September 12, 2004 12:13 AM
It's funny to blur my eyes and see how much of the country is red on that map. It just goes to prove that votes per capita is more important than votes per acre.
This kooky electoral college has past its expiration date anyway. The age of national candidates has long made the existing system irrelevant and harmful as we witnessed during the 2000 election. I don't see it going away anytime soon, however, as our country's once mutable laws are now considered sacred.
... I find it very hard to believe that New Jersey would be listed as "Barely Kerry"...
Well ... that's what the polls are saying. Of course, it's all relative. Washington is considered largely a democratic state, yet it's also "Barely Kerry". In reality, it's unlikely either of those states (NJ=43%-39% WA=52%-44%) will turn into Bush states, it's just that the wording is off putting. If nothing else, that site should serve as a reminder that it's not enough to sit back and hope for the right person to win - VOTE!
The "votemaster" of that site had something interesting to note:
I have it on good authority that overseas voters are registering in huge numbers this time, maybe double or triple 2000. I was told that the number of people who showed up at the Democratic party caucus in England earlier this year was 10 times what it was in 2000, ditto in other countries. Americans overseas vote in the state they last lived in, even if that was decades ago.
It will be interestign to see the effect of these unpolled likely voters.
I despise election predictors. Particularly the exit polls on election day. By maing things seem like a foregone conclusion, they help suppress voter turnout. After all, if your vote does not matter, why cast it? I always cast my vote, even if the outcome is certain. But many people don't, thus ensuring the polling data's correctness.
That's a good sign for the Democrats. Now if other countries' citizens could vote, too, we'd be all set.
We could keep the electoral college but dole out votes like Maine does with each candidate getting a percentage based on votes instead of winner take all. Knowledge of that change would help citizens believe their votes still matter.