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Near-Useless Polls

Chuck had a post earlier about his frustration with polling. For Kerry-supporters, there were a tough few weeks after the Republican Convention. It seemed that delaying their convention turned out to be a good strategy for a number of reasons. But as the balloons and rhetoric fade, we’re left with Bush’s same tired repetition that more of the same is what he’s got in store for the country. And as we look around, many of us are saying “we’ve had enough of the same, thank you very much.”

The polls are fickle. Zogby is showing surges for Kerry.

What are we to say about those earlier predictions that had Bush ahead? What we say is that these polls do not predict the future. So, what good are these polls to us? Not much good.

Kerry has edged to a narrow lead in Ohio and Nevada while his lead has widened in Iowa. Meanwhile, Bush is losing ground in Tennessee and W. Va. Do you believe the poll numbers, the trends, or neither? I htink that the polls are decent in showing trends, just like a poorly calibrated scale. As long as the polling methodology is consistent, I think it can show that a candidate is gaining or losing support. But it can’t tell you, really, where the voting is going to end up.

No one can predict the future. Put too much faith in the polls and you might find yourself depressed for no reason, or perhaps surprised on election day. Heck last time we didn’t even know for sure until the Supreme Court stepped in. So, ignore the polls as a predictor of who will win. Perhaps use them as an indicator of who is gaining support.

Posted by James at October 7, 2004 11:24 AM
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