September 26, 2008

McCain Caught Speeding

Pretty exciting week for news, eh?

It looks like congress was close to working out a deal on the financial crisis, having issued a joint, broad statement of principles before McCain pulled a campaign stunt, announced he was going to inject himself into the process (along with claims, now clearly diversionary, that he would "suspend the campaign"). Once he arrived in Washington D.C. the previous plans fell apart as constituents revolted and many Republicans rallied around their version of a solution with even less regulation -- a more "market-based" approach. Solve the problem with a circular system of insurance and tax breaks and such. (A summary of the House GOP plan is here)

Listen folks, I understand why people don't want taxpayer dollars used here. But aren't the Republicans offering more of the same of what got us here in the first place? I understand that's an over-simplification; I am not an economist. But here's an opinion from a staff reporter at the Slate's "The Big Money."

The Republicans in Congress would like taxpayer funds to stay far away from this plan. Instead, they want the banks that took on so many mortgage-backed securities to bail themselves out through an insurance system. The details are still sketchy-as most things are in Congress these days-but the Republican plan leans far too close to birthing a dozen new AIG-like situations. A polite reminder: The government had to bail out AIG just last week.

McCain's presence has exacerbated the situation. I say "presence" because it doesn't look to me like he's done much more than pose for the cameras. Just what is McCain doing to help? If anyone can send me a link, let me know.

According to The Hill, Obama is reaching out to the House GOP, to see what of their plan can be incorporated into the bailout.

During a conference call with reporters, the Democratic presidential candidate said an alternative plan put forth by House Republicans should be added to the one negotiated among a bipartisan group of senators, House Democrats and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson.

House Republicans announced they would send Minority Whip Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) to the negotiating table. Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), one of the authors of the GOP plan, expressed optimism that the parties could reach some agreement.

If you like bipartisanship, then there you go. A candidate acting presidential, without announcing the suspension of anything and without suggesting he's going to cancel not only his debate, but his VP's debate. It's no surprise to me, Obama is the one who began the conversation that the two candidates ought to issue a joint statement of principles.

The debate appears to be going on tonight as planned. Obama made a smart move not falling for this "suspension" BS and leaving the door open for a "town hall" format if McCain didn't show, as suggested on Fox News by University of Mississippi Chancellor Robert Khayat:

"We're going to urge the Presidential Debate Commission to have Senator Obama on stage and we'll have a town meeting," Khayat said.

Let McCain make his crazy statements. McCain really stuck himself when he declared he wouldn't show up to the debate until a deal is reached. The chances are against an actual finalization of the deal. They'll be working on it until next week. McCain blinked when Obama called his bluff on the debates; there was no way McCain was going to sit through a 90 minute long Obama town hall. So, despite his statement to America about "taking the cost" -- he'll show up in Mississippi.

McCain never intended to skip the debates. He never really suspended his campaign. Obama didn't fall for it, and McCain's bluff failed. In poker, we sometimes call that "caught speeding." It's really true that you can tell from their styles: McCain is a craps player and Obama is playing poker with him. Thanks to Mike ( @lefauxfrog ) for bringing this contrast to my attention with this public radio story.

Posted by James at September 26, 2008 2:11 PM
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And I got it from John Moe, who hosts that public radio show Weekend America.

Posted by: Mike at September 26, 2008 3:12 PM

In addition to weaseling his way out of his debate, I thought from the get-go that he was also finagling a way to get his totally unqualified VP out of her debate.

Now, I see that I am not alone. My, I feel vindicated. Here's a story from yesterday's Dallas Morning News:

http://dallasmorningviewsblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2008/09/why-has-no-one.html

Lindsey Graham set off a firestorm of speculation last night when he proposed, on behlaf of the McCain campaign, that the Veep debate be delayed because of all this urgent economic business. Funny, even with his campaign suspended, McCain's VP candidate still has time to meet behind for photo ops with world leaders. Shouldn't she bin the halls of Congress helping to secure votes for this important bill?

But here's my question. With all this speculation -- with the perception that this is a delay meant to, at best, buy this inexperienced candidate more time and, at worst, avoid the debat altogether -- why hasn't anyone from the McCain camp said forcefully, "We absolutely look forward to Palin tearing Biden apart at the debate and our only concern is logistical. In fact, we'd be willing to move the VP debate up to Friday night to allow the men at the top of the ticket to attend to this economic crisis management in Washington!"


Why hasn't that option been floated by McCain surrogates? I think we all know the answer. The more they coach Sarah Palin, the more they are realizing that she is not up for the job. Maybe it's not fair of me to say that since we're only hearing from unnamed sources that that's the case, but I don't see anyone out there forcefully trying to debunk that growing suspicion.
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Ouch.

Posted by: Patti M. at September 26, 2008 3:30 PM

I knew that McCain was "unpredictable," but I always assumed that there was a method to his madness.

Nope.

He excels at making himself the center of attention, though.

Posted by: Julie at September 26, 2008 3:33 PM

Well, Palin served her purpose, and now she's a drag in the polls. They want the attention back off Palin and on McCain.

Sorry; you tied that albatross around your neck.

Good point, Patti. Why did nobody suggest moving up the VP debate. Perhaps someone did and McCain panicked.

Why, for that matter, if the crisis was too big for McCain to multitask, did McCain not announce that he was going to Washington and Palin was going to take over the campaign? Palin could have done Letterman for him. Isn't this the job of a VP -- to play back up when needed?

We all know why this didn't happen -- wasn't even seriously suggested.

Palin is the woman's anti-candidate. Instead of breaking stereotypes, she reinforced them. Seemingly chosen as eye-candy, she produced the eye-candy bump in the polls. But like candy, it's not very good for you. Palin is now a drag on the campaign. Even some conservative commentators are calling for her to exit:

http://tinyurl.com/palinshouldgo

It was fun while it lasted," Parker writes. "Palin’s recent interviews with Charles Gibson, Sean Hannity, and now Katie Couric have all revealed an attractive, earnest, confident candidate. Who is clearly out of her league."

Interesting definition of "fun."

I can't imagine McCain dumping Palin now. That would be like... well, like a lot of things McCain has done this campaign season.

There was speculation last night on the Rachael Maddow show as to whether or not dumping Palin would be McCain's next empty razzle-dazzle play. I think even McCain isn't that crazy. But, then again, I thought suggestions that McCain might pick Palin were insane fantasy.

Posted by: James at September 26, 2008 4:00 PM

I like one of Slate's predictions for the next Hail Mary stunt by the McCain campaign. Selling Alaska to Russia for $700 billion would solve a bunch of problems at once.

Posted by: Mike at September 26, 2008 4:15 PM

I can't let this go by without mention, either:

McCain's campaign has mistakenly run ads claiming to win the debate, before it happens.

They even have quotes from his campaign manager, Rick Davis.

You want this campaign to be over? What are we going to do for entertainment after this? Once the campaign is over, all we'll have left is the hard reality of the smoldering aftermath of the Bush Presidency and Republican Ascendancy.

Posted by: James at September 26, 2008 4:17 PM

Just to be clear, the text I posted is the article from the Dallas Morning News, and not my original thoughts, though I agree with the author.

Posted by: Patti M. at September 26, 2008 4:55 PM

We are seeing the same John McCain that has always been there. The problem is, we've known him as a senator where his erratic - and dramatic - decision making wasn't that important to us. This is the real John McCain and what's more, he knows it.

"I don’t torture myself over decisions. I make them as quickly as I can, quicker than the other fellow if I can. Often my haste is a mistake, but I live with the consequences without complaint."


That's John McCain in his book, "Worth the Fighting for" - 2002

The only problem with it, of course,is as president he would be asking all of us to live with the consequences of his hasty mistakes without complaint. That's absurd.

Posted by: Greg at September 26, 2008 6:21 PM

Ooops - and I should add, this would be a wonderful quote to throw in his face if, at some point, he decides NOT to live with the consequences of having chosen Palin. Of course, a Palin departure won't happen that way. She'll suddenly develop maternal instincts and need to spend more time with her family!

Posted by: Greg at September 26, 2008 6:24 PM

I really can't believe she's going to turn into another Harriet Meyer. It's too late. The election is in less than 40 days. If he changes horses midstream, he might as well just drown himself instead.

Posted by: Patti M. at September 26, 2008 7:35 PM

After tonight's tepid debate performance by McCain in his supposedly best subject, expect another wacky wild-card "game changer" move.

Posted by: James at September 27, 2008 12:26 AM

I can't believe you put yourself through watching that debate.

That being said, I just bought a big jar of Orville Redenbacher for the Palin/Biden debate.

Posted by: Patti M. at September 27, 2008 6:46 AM

I don't think the Palin/Biden debate will be as much fun as we're hoping. I'm getting flashbacks to 2000 with Palin; she's the Bush of 2008.

Remember how Bush rode the low expectations up to the first debate? And how we thought Gore would hit it out of the park? What's the tightly-controlled Palin been doing for the last couple of weeks? Lowering expectations for the debate, when everyone will be watching. Remember, the same people who were in charge of Bush are in charge of Palin.

The target they're aiming to hit is media and independent reaction of "She didn't seem nearly as uninformed/stupid/uncomfortable/weak as we thought she would."

I tell you, more often than not it seems to me that the "winner" of these debates is simply the person who went in with the lowest expectations. UNLESS they implode. Obama appears to have won this first debate because the favored McCain couldn't thrash him on foreign policy or the economy. As a result, he eased people's fears by facing McCain and looking presidential.

Do I think Palin will implode? How can I know; Palin's appearances have been so tightly controlled. I may be a victim of an attempt to lower expectations.

The first debate is the most important debate; the most people are watching. Why would Obama agree to do the first debate on national security, a subject that McCain polled much higher on? He was confident that the polling represented a misunderstanding of his grasp of foreign policy, and he knows the effect that artificially low expectations has on a debate.

McCain agreed to do it first because McCain is a bit overconfident in that arena, like Gore was in 2000. They thought they could win on their perceived advantage, but these debates aren't won on a point system.

Posted by: James at September 27, 2008 7:30 AM

You forgot the bully part.

Chauvanism/sexism will play its part in the Palin/Biden debate.

Will Biden be a mean man beating up on a woman? (We're equal, but you still have to treat us nicely, right?) or will he be a chauvanist who showed disdain at a perfectly qualified female candidate?

He's got to choreograph his dance with Palin. He can't be seen to be too "light" on her or he'll be seen as giving a woman a pass. Conversely, he can't be too hard on her or he'll be seen as being too agressive towards this hockey mom.

As we all know, the fact that she's a mom has been mentioned ad nauseum, as if that's somehow germane to being VP. So what, I say, but for some people, the mommy card is super duper important. She can bring home the bacon, fry it up in a pan...

What have you heard about Biden's kids (does he have any?) or McCain's? At the DNC nominating festival, you saw Obama's two kids, but they're out of the picture, which is as it should be. I do not care one bit about how fertile these candidates are, and I am not voting for their kids. Move on.

Stll, we hear about Palin the Hockey Mom, and we all love our moms. Moms are special. We cherish them. We certainly wouldn't dream of asking hard, pointed questions that might make our mom look like a fool on national TV.

Pepare for the "Biden was rude/mean/harsh" comments or, convesely, "Biden was patronizing/treated her differently because she's a woman" comments.

Does beer go with popcorn?

Posted by: Patti M. at September 27, 2008 7:44 AM

I hope he's as rough on her as he would be to anyone else, as long as he sticks to issues while doing so (no personal stuff) and represents his own ticket well.

If she's able to defend herself, then good for her. But if not, how does that hurt Biden, really? Of course her fan club will whine, but we already know what they think.

To undecided people, I think it will be more obvious that she's not ready for this kind of job. Especially if TV news continues to showcase her worst moments repeatedly.

But I'm not sure that either Biden or the moderator (whoever it is) will have to put in any special effort. So far Palin has stepped in it with Charles Gibson and Katie Couric - two of the most mild-mannered interviewers on network TV. (Seriously, Oprah would have killed her.) Presumably, Palin had prepared for those interviews, and they didn't take place on live TV in a roomful of people.

Maybe it's a hustle, and she's actually a brilliant debater who's been waiting for that one big night. But I doubt it. And I also doubt that most people (aside from the people who will never change their minds) will give her a woman-pass if she cracks under pressure. They might feel sorry for her, but they'll also imagine her doing the same thing as VP or god forbid POTUS and they will not like it.

If she'd been the first woman to be in this position, it might be different. But Hillary Clinton and Geraldine Ferraro and Janet Reno and Condoleeza Rice (not to mention a ton of foreign female heads of state) have already proven that strong women don't need special treatment or a different standard.

And you're damn right that beer goes with popcorn.

Posted by: Julie at September 27, 2008 11:37 AM

Hm. Oprah. Interesting.

Posted by: Patti M. at September 27, 2008 11:42 AM
“We’ve looked at tapes of Gov. Palin’s debates, and she’s a terrific debater,” Plouffe told reporters on a conference call. “She has performed very, very well. She’s obviously a skilled speaker. We expect she’ll give a great performance next Thursday. “

It's important not to underestimate Governor Palin. Obama knows this. If nobody is taking her seriously on the run-up to the debate, mark my words, McCain will get a huge bump when she doesn't fall flat on her face.

You'll see a tepid debate, you'll think Sarah Palin has lost, and you'll see the audience reaction and your jaw will hit the floor as if people were watching a completely different debate.

The GOP is working hard to lower expectations. If the media falls for it, she's all but earned a McCain bump before the debate even begins.

Posted by: James at September 27, 2008 11:52 AM

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